ABSTRACT

Food industry enterprises play an important role in the economy. They provide the population with food, create jobs, and make a significant contribution to the production of the gross domestic product. However, competition and an unstable market situation lead to crisis situations. Therefore, for the financial security of the enterprise, it is necessary to determine and analyze the probability of bankruptcy in advance and diagnose the reasons for its occurrence. The methods of discriminant analysis and economic and statistical forecasting create opportunities for determining the probability of the occurrence of crisis phenomena. The purpose of the study is to compare approaches and methods of forecasting the probability of crisis phenomena and to determine the factors that cause them. The article, based on the example of a leading Ukrainian company in the food industry, provides the results of the application of various models for determining the probability of bankruptcy by Beaver, E. Altman, Tafler, K. Springate, and domestic models. Thus, the study confirms the possibility and expediency of using the above-mentioned models to predict the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises. The key factors that affect the company’s activity and can be the causes of crisis situations are identified. The implementation of forecasting models in management activities makes it possible to predict the onset of crisis phenomena and generate measures to prevent bankruptcy and ensure financial security in competitive conditions of instability and uncertainty of the market environment.